Pi Cycle Highs and Lows

A moving average-based model designed to identify cycle tops and bottoms.

Overview
The Pi Cycle model compares two key moving averages — the 111-day MA and the 350-day MA × 2 — to detect moments of extreme overvaluation or undervaluation.
Historically, this model has accurately signaled cycle tops within a few days of major Bitcoin peaks.

Interpretation

  • When MA111 crosses above MA350×2, a potential cycle top is forming.

  • When MA111 crosses below MA350×2, a cycle bottom may emerge.

Formula

P i H i g h = M A 111 M A 350 × 2 PiHigh = \frac{MA_{111}}{MA_{350} \times 2}
P i L o w = M A 111 M A 350 PiLow = \frac{MA_{111}}{MA_{350}}

Signal
Crossovers between these MAs have historically aligned with tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

Insights
Serves as one of the most respected on-chain time-based valuation models, particularly useful for macro-cycle analysis.

Available Metric