Overview
The Alpha Price, developed by João Wedson, combines multiple on-chain valuation layers into a unified model that captures Bitcoin’s historical and structural behavior. It starts by calculating the market age in days, then determines the average market capitalization (USD) by dividing the cumulative market cap by the total number of days since inception.

The metric’s core component — the Alpha Price — is derived from the Realized Price, adjusted by the ratio of Realized Cap to Average Cap. This produces a theoretical upper limit for Bitcoin’s price, representing regions of extreme market euphoria or saturation.

Formula

$AlphaPrice = RealizedPrice * \frac{RealizedCap}{AverageCap}$

Interpretation

• Upper lines: Overheated zones — historically high-risk areas.

• Lower lines: Accumulation zones and structural supports.

• Mid-range: Equilibrium between valuation and sentiment.

Signal
When price approaches the upper Alpha bands, it suggests extreme profit realization potential — often marking cyclical tops. Lower bands, on the other hand, denote undervaluation and long-term opportunity zones.

Insights
Alpha Price introduces a framework to visualise on-chain sentiment through risk-adjusted valuation lines, providing a hybrid between macro support/resistance and long-term investor behavior.

Available Metrics

• Alpha Price